🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Estac Troyes and Rodez share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 16, as Estac Troyes and Rodez drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 2.25 xG and Rodez 1.12 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Estac Troyes fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.40 / defence 0.99 against Rodez attack 0.93 / defence 1.27, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 63% | Draw 19% | Rodez 18%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 49%, Rodez 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estac Troyes's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Rodez's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.53 PPG, Rodez 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights