Estac Troyes 2-1 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estac Troyes vs Reims fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Estac Troyes host Reims at Stade de l'Aube in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 January 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Estac Troyes — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Estac Troyes have posted 8W 1D 1L at Stade de l'Aube — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Estac Troyes are significantly better at Stade de l'Aube than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Reims stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Reims have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Estac Troyes) versus 1.80 (Reims). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Estac Troyes register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Reims in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Estac Troyes, 1 for Reims and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Reims in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 35% versus Reims 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 48% | Reims 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.74 xG and Reims 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 1.236 / defence 0.899 | Reims attack 1.169 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.159. Data: 52 Estac Troyes games / 18 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 50% | Draw 24% | Reims 27%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Reims 3.70. Estac Troyes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estac Troyes at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 60% | Reims 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 50% | Draw 24% | Reims 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Estac Troyes 1.74 / Reims 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 1.236 / def 0.899 | Reims attack 1.169 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Reims xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Reims kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Reims kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Reims?
Estac Troyes 2 - 1 Reims.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Reims part of?
Estac Troyes vs Reims is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 50% chance of winning, Reims a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Estac Troyes and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Reims?
Record (5 meetings): Estac Troyes 2W | Draws 2 | Reims 1W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Reims in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Reims (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Estac Troyes's attack rating (1.24) and Reims's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reims's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
50%
2.01
24%
4.24
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.96
1.22
Reims xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
18%
5.70
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
5%
21.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.22 for Reims, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Estac Troyes's recent record stands at 24W 10D 18L from 52 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reims, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 21L across 52 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Estac Troyes on 1.58 PPG, Reims on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Estac Troyes have managed 15W 5D 6L from 26 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reims's away record stands at 7W 9D 10L across 26 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estac Troyes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.29 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Reims in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 24W 10D 18L in their last 52 games (1.58 PPG), while Reims have gone 17W 14D 21L in their last 52 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Reims away?
Estac Troyes's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.92 PPG; Reims away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Reims in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2023, when Reims won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Reims specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Estac Troyes
2
Draws
1
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Reims?
From 6 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 3, Reims have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Estac Troyes 2-1 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Reims?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 31%, Reims 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Estac Troyes) and 50% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Estac Troyes have failed to score in 31% of games; Reims in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Reims?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 50% of Reims's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estac Troyes vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 50% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Reims tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Reims in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Estac Troyes edge out Reims 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Reims 2-1 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.74 xG and Reims 1.22 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.24 / defence 0.90 against Reims attack 1.17 / defence 1.10, drawn from 52/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 50% | Draw 24% | Reims 27%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 48%, Reims 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Reims's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.58 PPG, Reims 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.