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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Estac Troyes edge out RED Star FC 93 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estac Troyes beat RED Star FC 93 1-0 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.38 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.16 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. RED Star FC 93 landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.29 / defence 0.98 against RED Star FC 93 attack 0.99 / defence 0.86, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 42% | Draw 27% | RED Star FC 93 31%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 48%, RED Star FC 93 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estac Troyes's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

RED Star FC 93's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.58 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights