Estac Troyes 0-3 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris FC at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estac Troyes vs Paris FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Paris FC make the trip to Stade de l'Aube to face Estac Troyes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Monday 21 October 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Estac Troyes's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes's home record at Stade de l'Aube: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Paris FC have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Paris FC are 1.20 PPG clear of Estac Troyes in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (2.00 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Paris FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Estac Troyes 0W, Paris FC 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Paris FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Estac Troyes half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Paris FC half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 56% versus Paris FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 52% | Paris FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.11 xG and Paris FC 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.865 / defence 1.204 | Paris FC attack 1.149 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.125. Data: 46 Estac Troyes games / 46 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 27% | Draw 25% | Paris FC 48%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Paris FC 2.08. Paris FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 70% | Paris FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Monday 21 Oct 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 27% | Draw 25% | Paris FC 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Estac Troyes 1.11 / Paris FC 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.865 / def 1.204 | Paris FC attack 1.149 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Paris FC xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Paris FC kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Paris FC kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 21 October 2024 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Paris FC?
Estac Troyes 0 - 3 Paris FC.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Paris FC part of?
Estac Troyes vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 27% chance of winning, Paris FC a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Estac Troyes and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Paris FC?
Record (2 meetings): Estac Troyes 0W | Draws 1 | Paris FC 1W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Paris FC in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Paris FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Estac Troyes vs Paris FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Estac Troyes's attack at 0.86x the league average against Paris FC's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Paris FC's attack (1.15x) against Estac Troyes's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
27%
3.69
25%
3.96
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.67
1.56
Paris FC xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
6%
17.49
16%
6.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.8 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.56 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estac Troyes's recent record stands at 10W 16D 20L from 46 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris FC, meanwhile, have gone 22W 12D 12L across 46 games — 1.70 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris FC by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estac Troyes heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Estac Troyes have managed 8W 5D 9L from 22 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Paris FC's away record stands at 9W 8D 5L across 22 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.41 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 10W 16D 20L in their last 46 games (1.00 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 22W 12D 12L in their last 46 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Paris FC away?
Paris FC's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.32 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Paris FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Paris FC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris FC won 0-3 on 21 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estac Troyes have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Paris FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
3
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Paris FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 0, Paris FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2025, when Paris FC 1-0 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 68%, Paris FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Estac Troyes) and 41% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Paris FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Paris FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Estac Troyes's games and 54% of Paris FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estac Troyes vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 41% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Paris FC tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Paris FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Estac Troyes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Estac Troyes 0-3 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.11 xG and Paris FC 1.56 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Estac Troyes fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Paris FC outscored their 1.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.86 / defence 1.20 against Paris FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.87, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 27% | Draw 25% | Paris FC 48%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 52%, Paris FC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Paris FC's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.