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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Le Mans cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Estac Troyes.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Le Mans beat Estac Troyes 0-2 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.68 xG and Le Mans 1.10 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Estac Troyes fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Le Mans outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.29 / defence 0.88 against Le Mans attack 1.08 / defence 1.07, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 51% | Draw 24% | Le Mans 25%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Le Mans win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 50%, Le Mans 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estac Troyes's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Le Mans's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 2.05 PPG, Le Mans 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Mans win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Le Mans (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights