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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Estac Troyes run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Laval.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estac Troyes beat Laval 4-0 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.59 xG and Laval 0.92 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Estac Troyes beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Laval landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.39 / defence 0.94 against Laval attack 0.80 / defence 0.94, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 51% | Draw 29% | Laval 20%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 52%, Laval 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estac Troyes's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Laval's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Estac Troyes arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights