Estac Troyes 0-0 Laval – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Laval at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estac Troyes vs Laval fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Laval travel to Stade de l'Aube to take on Estac Troyes. The game is scheduled for Friday 1 November 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Estac Troyes — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes's home record at Stade de l'Aube: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Laval stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Laval have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Estac Troyes 1.00 PPG, Laval 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Estac Troyes, 0 for Laval and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Estac Troyes winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Laval in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 53% versus Laval 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 53% | Laval 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.18 xG and Laval 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.940 / defence 1.190 | Laval attack 1.013 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.123. Data: 49 Estac Troyes games / 49 Laval games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 32% | Draw 27% | Laval 41%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Laval 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Laval are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Laval offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Estac Troyes 60% | Laval 30%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Friday 1 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 32% | Draw 27% | Laval 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Estac Troyes 1.18 / Laval 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.940 / def 1.190 | Laval attack 1.013 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Laval (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Laval xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Laval kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Laval kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 November 2024 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Laval?
Estac Troyes 0 - 0 Laval.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Laval part of?
Estac Troyes vs Laval is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 32% chance of winning, Laval a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Estac Troyes and Laval will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Laval?
Record (2 meetings): Estac Troyes 2W | Draws 0 | Laval 0W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Laval in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Laval (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Estac Troyes vs Laval?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Estac Troyes's attack at 0.94x the league average against Laval's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Laval's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
32%
3.08
27%
3.75
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.53
1.35
Laval xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
8%
11.92
13%
7.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.8 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.35 for Laval, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Laval?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Estac Troyes come into this having played 49 games, going 12W 16D 21L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Laval sit at 1.41 PPG from 49 outings (19W 12D 18L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Estac Troyes on 1.06 PPG, Laval on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Estac Troyes's home form reads 9W 5D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Laval have taken 1.62 points per game from 24 outings (11W 6D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 1.14 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Laval
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Laval in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 12W 16D 21L in their last 49 games (1.06 PPG), while Laval have gone 19W 12D 18L in their last 49 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Laval away?
Laval's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.33 PPG; Laval away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 2 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Estac Troyes have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 May 2026, when Estac Troyes won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Laval specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
1
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Laval?
From 6 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 4, Laval have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Laval last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Estac Troyes 4-0 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Laval?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Laval see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 62%, Laval 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Estac Troyes) and 38% (Laval).
On the defensive side: Laval in 42%; Laval in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Laval?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 33% of Laval's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estac Troyes vs Laval usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 38% of Laval's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Laval tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Laval in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Estac Troyes's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes and Laval finished level at 0-0 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.18 xG and Laval 1.35 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Estac Troyes fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Laval landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.94 / defence 1.19 against Laval attack 1.01 / defence 0.89, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 32% | Draw 27% | Laval 41%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 53%, Laval 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Laval's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.06 PPG, Laval 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.