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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Estac Troyes run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Dunkerque.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estac Troyes beat Dunkerque 5-1 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.56 xG and Dunkerque 1.38 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Estac Troyes beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.36 / defence 1.07 against Dunkerque attack 1.10 / defence 1.03, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 41% | Draw 27% | Dunkerque 33%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 49%, Dunkerque 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estac Troyes's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Dunkerque's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.61 PPG, Dunkerque 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm. Dunkerque (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights