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Prediction vindicated as Estac Troyes edge out Clermont Foot 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estac Troyes beat Clermont Foot 2-1 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.89 xG and Clermont Foot 1.24 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.37 / defence 1.09 against Clermont Foot attack 0.94 / defence 1.23, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 52% | Draw 24% | Clermont Foot 24%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 48%, Clermont Foot 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estac Troyes's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Clermont Foot's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Estac Troyes arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights