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Prediction vindicated as Estac Troyes edge out Amiens 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estac Troyes beat Amiens 1-0 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.29 xG and Amiens 0.68 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.80 / defence 0.81 against Amiens attack 0.76 / defence 1.11, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 51% | Draw 29% | Amiens 20%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 49%, Amiens 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estac Troyes's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Amiens's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.17 PPG, Amiens 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights