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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dunkerque and Rodez share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dunkerque and Rodez finished level at 1-1 at Stade Marcel Tribut, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.29 xG and Rodez 1.18 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 1.05 / defence 0.88 against Rodez attack 1.15 / defence 1.07, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 38% | Draw 29% | Rodez 33%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 44%, Rodez 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dunkerque's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Rodez's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dunkerque 1.58 PPG, Rodez 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights