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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dunkerque and Reims share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dunkerque and Reims finished level at 1-1 at Stade Marcel Tribut, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.05 xG and Reims 0.85 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 1.05 / defence 0.85 against Reims attack 0.85 / defence 0.88, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 38% | Draw 34% | Reims 28%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 44%, Reims 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dunkerque's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Reims's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dunkerque 1.59 PPG, Reims 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights