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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Dunkerque defy the odds to beat Paris FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dunkerque beat Paris FC 1-0 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 0.98 xG and Paris FC 1.09 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Paris FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.96 / defence 0.98 against Paris FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.81, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 32% | Draw 30% | Paris FC 38%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Dunkerque win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 40%, Paris FC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dunkerque's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.

Paris FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dunkerque 1.42 PPG, Paris FC 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dunkerque win broke the near-deadlock. Dunkerque (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Paris FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights