🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Nancy cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Dunkerque.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nancy beat Dunkerque 1-3 at Stade Marcel Tribut, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.49 xG and Nancy 0.85 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Nancy outscored their 0.85 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 1.08 / defence 1.03 against Nancy attack 0.72 / defence 0.94, drawn from 36/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 51% | Draw 29% | Nancy 20%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Nancy win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 100%, Nancy 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Nancy arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Dunkerque managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nancy scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights