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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Metz defy the odds to beat Dunkerque 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Metz beat Dunkerque 2-3 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.07 xG and Metz 0.89 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Dunkerque beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Metz outscored their 0.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 1.04 / defence 0.83 against Metz attack 1.01 / defence 0.79, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 39% | Draw 31% | Metz 30%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Metz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 42%, Metz 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dunkerque's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Metz's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dunkerque 1.45 PPG, Metz 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Metz win broke the near-deadlock. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Metz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights