🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Martigues defy the odds to beat Dunkerque 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Martigues beat Dunkerque 0-1 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.81 xG and Martigues 0.84 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dunkerque fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 1.05 / defence 0.98 against Martigues attack 0.84 / defence 1.30, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 60% | Draw 23% | Martigues 17%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Martigues win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 40%, Martigues 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dunkerque's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Martigues's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Dunkerque arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with Martigues winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dunkerque (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Martigues (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights