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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Laval cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dunkerque.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Laval beat Dunkerque 0-2 at Stade Marcel Tribut, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.23 xG and Laval 0.72 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Dunkerque fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Laval outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.98 / defence 0.87 against Laval attack 0.71 / defence 1.03, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 46% | Draw 33% | Laval 20%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Laval win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 44%, Laval 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dunkerque's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Laval's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dunkerque 1.55 PPG, Laval 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Laval win broke the near-deadlock. Dunkerque (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.66 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Laval (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights