Dunkerque vs Guingamp – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dunkerque at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dunkerque vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dunkerque and Guingamp meet at Stade Marcel Tribut in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Friday 6 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Dunkerque's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Dunkerque have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Marcel Tribut, Dunkerque have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Guingamp (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Dunkerque against 0.60 for Guingamp. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Dunkerque, 4 for Guingamp and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Dunkerque goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Guingamp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 62% versus Guingamp 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dunkerque 51% | Guingamp 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 1.43 xG and Guingamp 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 1.014 / defence 0.993 | Guingamp attack 0.897 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.249. Data: 39 Dunkerque games / 39 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 42% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 27%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Guingamp 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dunkerque as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dunkerque if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dunkerque 50% | Guingamp 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Marcel Tribut • Kick-off: Friday 6 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 42% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Dunkerque 1.43 / Guingamp 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 1.014 / def 0.993 | Guingamp attack 0.897 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Guingamp xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Guingamp kick off?
Dunkerque vs Guingamp is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 6 November 2026 at Stade Marcel Tribut.
Where is Dunkerque vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Guingamp part of?
Dunkerque vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 42% chance of winning, Guingamp a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Dunkerque and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Guingamp?
Record (9 meetings): Dunkerque 3W | Draws 2 | Guingamp 4W.
What form are Dunkerque and Guingamp in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Guingamp (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dunkerque's attack at 1.01x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (0.90x) against Dunkerque's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
42%
2.36
30%
3.31
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
2.54
1.11
Guingamp xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
14%
7.18
7%
15.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Dunkerque and 1.11 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dunkerque's recent record stands at 12W 12D 15L from 39 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Dunkerque, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Guingamp, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 16L across 39 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Dunkerque against 1.15 for Guingamp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dunkerque have managed 6W 8D 6L from 20 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Guingamp's away record stands at 4W 6D 10L across 20 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dunkerque come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dunkerque are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.26 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dunkerque have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Early Season
Guingamp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 12W 12D 15L in their last 39 games (1.23 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 11W 12D 16L in their last 39 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Guingamp away?
Dunkerque's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 1.30 PPG; Guingamp away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dunkerque have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Dunkerque
2
Draws
4
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Guingamp?
From 9 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 3, Guingamp have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Dunkerque 0-0 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dunkerque 55%, Guingamp 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Dunkerque) and 65% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Dunkerque have failed to score in 30% of games; Guingamp in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Dunkerque's games and 65% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dunkerque vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Dunkerque's recent games and 65% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and Guingamp tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.