🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dunkerque cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Grenoble.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dunkerque beat Grenoble 2-0 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.56 xG and Grenoble 1.02 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Grenoble landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 1.16 / defence 0.96 against Grenoble attack 0.98 / defence 0.96, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 50% | Draw 25% | Grenoble 25%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 43%, Grenoble 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dunkerque's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.

Grenoble's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dunkerque 1.43 PPG, Grenoble 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dunkerque win broke the near-deadlock. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Grenoble (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights