🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dunkerque and Clermont Foot share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dunkerque and Clermont Foot finished level at 2-2 at Stade Marcel Tribut, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.64 xG and Clermont Foot 1.00 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Clermont Foot outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 1.00 / defence 0.90 against Clermont Foot attack 0.94 / defence 1.02, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 52% | Draw 25% | Clermont Foot 23%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 36%, Clermont Foot 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dunkerque's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Clermont Foot's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Dunkerque arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dunkerque (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights