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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dunkerque and Boulogne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Marcel Tribut, Regular Season - 14, as Dunkerque and Boulogne drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.71 xG and Boulogne 0.98 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 1.41 / defence 1.03 against Boulogne attack 0.80 / defence 0.92, drawn from 47/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 55% | Draw 24% | Boulogne 21%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 60%, Boulogne 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dunkerque's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Boulogne's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Dunkerque arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dunkerque (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights