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Shock result as Annecy defy the odds to beat Dunkerque 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Annecy beat Dunkerque 0-1 at Stade Marcel Tribut, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.58 xG and Annecy 1.14 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dunkerque fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 1.33 / defence 0.96 against Annecy attack 1.02 / defence 0.98, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 48% | Draw 25% | Annecy 27%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Annecy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 44%, Annecy 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dunkerque's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Annecy's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dunkerque 1.70 PPG, Annecy 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Dunkerque (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights