Dunkerque 0-2 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Annecy at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dunkerque vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dunkerque and Annecy meet at Stade Marcel-Tribut in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Friday 16 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Dunkerque's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Dunkerque haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dunkerque have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stade Marcel-Tribut — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Annecy have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Annecy haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Annecy's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Annecy are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Dunkerque, 2 for Annecy and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 0–2 with Annecy winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Dunkerque half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 42% versus Annecy 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dunkerque 42% | Annecy 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 1.17 xG and Annecy 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 0.916 / defence 1.097 | Annecy attack 1.138 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.161. Data: 38 Dunkerque games / 38 Annecy games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 30% | Draw 28% | Annecy 42%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Annecy 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dunkerque 40% | Annecy 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Friday 16 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 30% | Draw 28% | Annecy 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Dunkerque 1.17 / Annecy 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 0.916 / def 1.097 | Annecy attack 1.138 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Annecy (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Annecy xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Annecy kick off?
Dunkerque vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 August 2024 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Annecy?
Dunkerque 0 - 2 Annecy.
Where is Dunkerque vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Annecy part of?
Dunkerque vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 30% chance of winning, Annecy a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Dunkerque and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Annecy?
Record (2 meetings): Dunkerque 0W | Draws 0 | Annecy 2W.
What form are Dunkerque and Annecy in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Dunkerque (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dunkerque's attack rating (0.92) and Annecy's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (1.14x) against Dunkerque's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
30%
3.38
28%
3.56
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
2.62
1.45
Annecy xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
7%
14.40
13%
7.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.5 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Dunkerque and 1.45 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dunkerque's recent record stands at 12W 10D 16L from 38 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five. Dunkerque haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Annecy, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 16L across 38 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five. Annecy haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Dunkerque against 1.21 for Annecy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dunkerque have managed 4W 4D 11L from 19 games — 0.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Annecy's away record stands at 7W 4D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dunkerque are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.29 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Pre-Season
Annecy
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Annecy in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while Annecy have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Annecy away?
Annecy's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 0.84 PPG; Annecy away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Annecy won 3-0 on 19 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dunkerque have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Annecy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Dunkerque
1
Draws
4
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Annecy?
From 6 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 1, Annecy have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Dunkerque 0-1 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dunkerque 37%, Annecy 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Dunkerque) and 63% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Dunkerque have failed to score in 47% of games; Annecy in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 58% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Dunkerque's recent games and 63% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and Annecy tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Annecy in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dunkerque.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Dunkerque 0-2 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.17 xG and Annecy 1.45 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Dunkerque fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.92 / defence 1.10 against Annecy attack 1.14 / defence 0.94, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 30% | Draw 28% | Annecy 42%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 42%, Annecy 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Annecy's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dunkerque 1.21 PPG, Annecy 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.