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Dominant Dunkerque run riot with a 6-2 hammering of Amiens.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dunkerque beat Amiens 6-2 at Stade Marcel Tribut, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.25 xG and Amiens 1.62 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 6-2 for 8 actual goals. Dunkerque beat their projection by 4.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 1.15 / defence 1.14 against Amiens attack 1.16 / defence 0.87, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 30% | Draw 24% | Amiens 46%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Dunkerque win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 42%, Amiens 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dunkerque's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Amiens's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dunkerque 1.59 PPG, Amiens 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dunkerque win broke the near-deadlock. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights