Dijon 0-1 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAU at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dijon vs PAU encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Gaston Gerard plays host to Dijon versus PAU in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Friday 14 August 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Current Form
Dijon's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Dijon have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAU (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. PAU have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, PAU have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
PAU hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 0–1 with PAU winning.
It is worth noting that PAU have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.34 xG and PAU 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 0.867 / defence 1.150 | PAU attack 1.068 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.216. PAU bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing Dijon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 1 Dijon games / 35 PAU games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dijon 32% | Draw 28% | PAU 39%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | PAU 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAU at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Gaston Gerard • Kick-off: Friday 14 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 32% | Draw 28% | PAU 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Dijon 1.34 / PAU 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 0.867 / def 1.150 | PAU attack 1.068 / def 1.257 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: PAU (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.49
PAU xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs PAU kick off?
Dijon vs PAU kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 14 August 2026 at Stade Gaston Gerard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs PAU?
Dijon 0 - 1 PAU.
Where is Dijon vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston Gerard.
What competition is Dijon vs PAU part of?
Dijon vs PAU is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 32% chance of winning, PAU a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Dijon and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and PAU?
Record (4 meetings): Dijon 0W | Draws 1 | PAU 3W.
What form are Dijon and PAU in?
Dijon (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D. PAU (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dijon's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against PAU's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — PAU's attack (1.07x) against Dijon's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
The sample (1/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
32%
3.08
28%
3.55
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.83
1.49
PAU xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
7%
13.72
10%
9.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Dijon and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Dijon and 1.49 for PAU, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, Dijon have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Dijon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAU's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for PAU, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Dijon are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PAU.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dijon are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Dijon have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; PAU in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Early Season
PAU
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and PAU in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while PAU have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
PAU go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dijon have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Dijon
1
Draws
4
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and PAU?
From 5 meetings on record, Dijon have won 0, PAU have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Dijon 0-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Dijon and PAU?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Dijon's recent matches and 0% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dijon vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Dijon's recent games and 0% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dijon and PAU tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, PAU in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAU edge out Dijon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Dijon 0-1 at Stade Gaston Gerard, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.34 xG and PAU 1.49 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dijon fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against PAU attack 1.07 / defence 1.26, drawn from 1/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 32% | Draw 28% | PAU 39%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 0%, PAU 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Dijon arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with PAU winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dijon managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. PAU scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.