Dijon 4-2 Metz – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Dijon at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dijon vs Metz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dijon host Metz at Stade Gaston-Gérard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 12 October 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dijon stand at 2W 3D 2L from 7 Ligue 2 matches — 1.29 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 1.43 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Dijon have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Dijon have gone 1W 0D 2L this season (3 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Metz have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Metz have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Metz away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dijon 1.29 PPG, Metz 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Dijon have won 1, Metz 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Dijon in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
Metz in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dijon 86% and Metz 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 43% | Metz 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.23 xG and Metz 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 0.988 / defence 1.298 | Metz attack 0.660 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.205. Data: 7 Dijon games / 7 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 40% | Draw 31% | Metz 30%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Metz 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dijon at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dijon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Dijon 67% | Metz 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Monday 12 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 40% | Draw 31% | Metz 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Dijon 1.23 / Metz 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 0.988 / def 1.298 | Metz attack 0.660 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Dijon (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Metz xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Metz kick off?
Dijon vs Metz kicked off at 18:45 on Monday 12 October 2026 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Metz?
Dijon 4 - 2 Metz.
Where is Dijon vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Metz part of?
Dijon vs Metz is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 40% chance of winning, Metz a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Dijon and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Metz?
Record (2 meetings): Dijon 1W | Draws 1 | Metz 0W.
What form are Dijon and Metz in?
Dijon (all comps): 2W-3D-2L in 7 | 1.29 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.43 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Metz (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dijon's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Metz's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Metz's attack versus Dijon's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
40%
2.53
31%
3.27
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.26
1.03
Metz xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
9%
11.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Dijon and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Dijon and 1.03 for Metz, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Metz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dijon's recent record stands at 2W 3D 2L from 7 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Dijon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Metz, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 1L across 7 games — 1.43 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Metz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dijon on 1.29 PPG, Metz on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dijon have managed 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Metz's away record stands at 0W 2D 1L across 3 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Metz's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Dijon are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.43 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dijon have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games; Metz in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Early Season
Metz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Metz in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 games (1.29 PPG), while Metz have gone 2W 4D 1L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Metz away?
Dijon's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.00 PPG; Metz away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 12 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Dijon's record when hosting Metz specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Dijon
1
Draws
0
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Metz?
From 3 meetings on record, Dijon have won 2, Metz have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 12 October 2026, when Dijon 4-2 Metz.
Who has won more matches between Dijon and Metz?
Dijon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Metz see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 67%, Metz 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Dijon and 0% for Metz.
On the defensive side: Metz in 33%; Dijon have failed to score in 33% of games; Metz in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Metz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Dijon's recent matches and 33% of Metz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dijon vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Dijon's recent games and 0% of Metz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dijon and Metz tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Metz in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dijon cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Metz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dijon beat Metz 4-2 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.23 xG and Metz 1.03 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Dijon beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Metz outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 0.99 / defence 1.30 against Metz attack 0.66 / defence 0.98, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 40% | Draw 31% | Metz 30%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 43%, Metz 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 79%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
Metz's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dijon 1.29 PPG, Metz 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dijon win broke the near-deadlock. Dijon (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Metz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.