Dijon 5-0 Laval – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dijon at 40%, yet in-form Laval provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dijon vs Laval fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Laval make the trip to Stade Gaston-Gérard to face Dijon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Monday 26 December 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dijon have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dijon's home record at Stade Gaston-Gérard: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Dijon are significantly better at Stade Gaston-Gérard than their overall form suggests.
Laval's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Laval have gone 3W 1D 3L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.43 PPG). Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Laval are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Dijon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Laval goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dijon 53% versus Laval 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 47% | Laval 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.16 xG and Laval 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 0.876 / defence 1.003 | Laval attack 0.953 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.040. Data: 53 Dijon games / 15 Laval games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 40% | Draw 29% | Laval 31%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Laval 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dijon as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Laval (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dijon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dijon 60% | Laval 43%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Monday 26 Dec 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 40% | Draw 29% | Laval 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Dijon 1.16 / Laval 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 0.876 / def 1.003 | Laval attack 0.953 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Dijon (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Laval xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Laval kick off?
Dijon vs Laval kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 26 December 2022 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Laval?
Dijon 5 - 0 Laval.
Where is Dijon vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Laval part of?
Dijon vs Laval is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 40% chance of winning, Laval a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Dijon and Laval will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Laval?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dijon and Laval in?
Dijon (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Laval (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dijon's attack rating (0.88) and Laval's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Laval's attack (0.95x) against Dijon's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
40%
2.53
29%
3.40
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.15
0.99
Laval xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
10%
10.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 11.5 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Dijon and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Dijon and 0.99 for Laval, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Laval?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 15 outings, Dijon have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 3W 6D 6L record — L-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Laval's form line: 6W 2D 7L from 15 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Dijon against 1.33 for Laval. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dijon have posted 1.00 PPG from 7 outings (1W 4D 2L).
On the road, Laval have gone 3W 1D 3L from 7 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Laval come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dijon are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 1.47 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Blended
Laval
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Laval in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 3W 6D 6L in their last 15 games (1.00 PPG), while Laval have gone 6W 2D 7L in their last 15 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Laval away?
Laval's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.00 PPG; Laval away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Dijon or Laval been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dijon have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Laval in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dijon won 5-0 on 26 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dijon have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Laval — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Dijon
0
Draws
1
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Laval?
From 3 meetings on record, Dijon have won 2, Laval have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Laval last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Dijon 3-2 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Dijon and Laval?
Dijon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dijon see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 43%, Laval 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Dijon) and 43% (Laval).
On the defensive side: Laval in 43%; Dijon have failed to score in 57% of games; Laval in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Laval?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Dijon's recent matches and 43% of Laval's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dijon vs Laval usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Dijon's recent games and 43% of Laval's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dijon and Laval tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Laval in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dijon run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Laval.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dijon beat Laval 5-0 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.16 xG and Laval 0.99 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Dijon beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Laval landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 0.88 / defence 1.00 against Laval attack 0.95 / defence 1.18, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 40% | Draw 29% | Laval 31%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 47%, Laval 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Laval's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dijon 1.00 PPG, Laval 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dijon win broke the near-deadlock. Dijon (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.