Concarneau 1-0 Valenciennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Concarneau at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Concarneau vs Valenciennes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 23 as Concarneau welcome Valenciennes to Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 February 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Concarneau have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Concarneau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat, Concarneau have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valenciennes stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Valenciennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Valenciennes have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Concarneau carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.00 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Concarneau have won 1, Valenciennes 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Concarneau winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Concarneau in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Valenciennes in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Concarneau 32% versus Valenciennes 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Concarneau 36% | Valenciennes 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Concarneau 1.27 xG and Valenciennes 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Concarneau attack 0.836 / defence 1.311 | Valenciennes attack 0.862 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.093. Valenciennes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.255 — this is suppressing Concarneau's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Concarneau games / 60 Valenciennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Concarneau 37% | Draw 27% | Valenciennes 36%. Fair-value odds: Concarneau 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Valenciennes 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Concarneau at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Concarneau offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Concarneau 50% | Valenciennes 40%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Concarneau vs Valenciennes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Concarneau 37% | Draw 27% | Valenciennes 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Concarneau 1.27 / Valenciennes 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Concarneau attack 0.836 / def 1.311 | Valenciennes attack 0.862 / def 1.255 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Concarneau (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Concarneau xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Valenciennes xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Concarneau vs Valenciennes kick off?
Concarneau vs Valenciennes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat.
What was the final score in Concarneau vs Valenciennes?
Concarneau 1 - 0 Valenciennes.
Where is Concarneau vs Valenciennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat.
What competition is Concarneau vs Valenciennes part of?
Concarneau vs Valenciennes is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Concarneau vs Valenciennes?
Our statistical model gives Concarneau a 37% chance of winning, Valenciennes a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Concarneau the favourite.
Will both teams score in Concarneau vs Valenciennes?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Concarneau and Valenciennes will score (BTTS).
Will Concarneau vs Valenciennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and Valenciennes?
Record (1 meetings): Concarneau 1W | Draws 0 | Valenciennes 0W.
What form are Concarneau and Valenciennes in?
Concarneau (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Valenciennes (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Concarneau's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Valenciennes's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Valenciennes's attack versus Concarneau's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Concarneau Win
37%
2.67
27%
3.71
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Concarneau xG
Total xG
2.51
1.24
Valenciennes xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
11%
9.18
10%
10.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.0 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Concarneau vs Valenciennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Concarneau and Valenciennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Concarneau and 1.24 for Valenciennes, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Concarneau vs Valenciennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 22 outings, Concarneau have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 7W 4D 11L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Concarneau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valenciennes's form line: 2W 8D 12L from 22 games, 0.64 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Valenciennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Concarneau are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valenciennes.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Concarneau have posted 1.10 PPG from 10 outings (3W 2D 5L).
On the road, Valenciennes have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Concarneau come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Concarneau are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Valenciennes are on 0.68 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Concarneau
Blended
Valenciennes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Concarneau and Valenciennes in coming into this match?
Concarneau have gone 7W 4D 11L in their last 22 games (1.14 PPG), while Valenciennes have gone 2W 8D 12L in their last 22 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Concarneau at home or Valenciennes away?
Concarneau's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Concarneau at home: 1.10 PPG; Valenciennes away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Concarneau and Valenciennes runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Concarneau
0
Draws
0
Valenciennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and Valenciennes?
From 2 meetings on record, Concarneau have won 2, Valenciennes have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Concarneau and Valenciennes last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2024, when Concarneau 1-0 Valenciennes.
Who has won more matches between Concarneau and Valenciennes?
Concarneau have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Concarneau see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Valenciennes see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Concarneau 50%, Valenciennes 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Concarneau) and 40% (Valenciennes).
On the defensive side: Valenciennes in 40%; Concarneau have failed to score in 40% of games; Valenciennes in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Concarneau home games / Valenciennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Concarneau play Valenciennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Concarneau's recent matches and 40% of Valenciennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Concarneau vs Valenciennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Concarneau's recent games and 40% of Valenciennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Concarneau edge out Valenciennes 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Concarneau beat Valenciennes 1-0 at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Concarneau 1.27 xG and Valenciennes 1.24 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Valenciennes landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Concarneau attack 0.84 / defence 1.31 against Valenciennes attack 0.86 / defence 1.25, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Concarneau 37% | Draw 27% | Valenciennes 36%, with Concarneau to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Concarneau 36%, Valenciennes 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Concarneau's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not.
Valenciennes's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Concarneau arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.64. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Concarneau (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.