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Shock result as Saint Etienne defy the odds to beat Clermont Foot 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Saint Etienne beat Clermont Foot 1-2 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.38 xG and Saint Etienne 1.05 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Saint Etienne outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.93 / defence 0.93 against Saint Etienne attack 1.04 / defence 1.18, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 44% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 28%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Saint Etienne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 37%, Saint Etienne 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Clermont Foot's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Saint Etienne's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.00 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights