Clermont Foot vs Rodez – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rodez make the trip to Stade Gabriel Montpied to face Clermont Foot in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Friday 6 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Clermont Foot's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 0W 7D 3L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Clermont Foot have posted 1W 6D 3L at Stade Gabriel Montpied — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Rodez have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Clermont Foot lead 1W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Rodez winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Rodez — key trading statistics (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Clermont Foot 60% and Rodez 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 42% | Rodez 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.13 xG and Rodez 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.744 / defence 0.977 | Rodez attack 1.004 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.339. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Clermont Foot games / 45 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 32% | Draw 27% | Rodez 41%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Rodez 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Clermont Foot 40% | Rodez 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 6 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 32% | Draw 27% | Rodez 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Clermont Foot 1.13 / Rodez 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.744 / def 0.977 | Rodez attack 1.004 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Rodez (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Rodez xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Rodez kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Rodez is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 6 November 2026 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Rodez part of?
Clermont Foot vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 32% chance of winning, Rodez a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Clermont Foot and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Rodez?
Record (4 meetings): Clermont Foot 1W | Draws 2 | Rodez 1W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Rodez in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 0W-7D-3L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Rodez (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (0.74) and Rodez's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (1.00x) against Clermont Foot's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
32%
3.14
27%
3.64
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.44
1.31
Rodez xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
9%
11.68
13%
7.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.31 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 45 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 9W 18D 18L record — D-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rodez's form line: 20W 14D 11L from 45 games, 1.64 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Rodez are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Clermont Foot.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 1.09 PPG from 23 outings (5W 10D 8L).
On the road, Rodez have gone 10W 7D 6L from 23 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.44 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Clermont Foot have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Rodez in 69%.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Rodez in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 9W 18D 18L in their last 45 games (1.00 PPG), while Rodez have gone 20W 14D 11L in their last 45 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Rodez away?
Rodez's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.09 PPG; Rodez away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Clermont Foot
2
Draws
1
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Rodez?
From 4 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 1, Rodez have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Clermont Foot 1-2 Rodez.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Clermont Foot see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 56%, Rodez 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Clermont Foot) and 56% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 39% of games; Rodez in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Rodez?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Clermont Foot's games and 70% of Rodez's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 56% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Rodez tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Rodez in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.