Clermont Foot 2-2 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Gabriel-Montpied plays host to Clermont Foot versus PAU in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Friday 16 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Clermont Foot have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Clermont Foot haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Clermont Foot's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stade Gabriel-Montpied this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PAU (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. PAU haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, PAU have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. PAU are 0.60 PPG clear of Clermont Foot in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Clermont Foot register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, PAU in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Clermont Foot half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
PAU half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Clermont Foot 50% and PAU 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 50% | PAU 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.23 xG and PAU 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | PAU attack 1.123 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.161. Data: 0 Clermont Foot games / 38 PAU games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 30% | Draw 27% | PAU 43%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | PAU 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAU are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 70% | PAU 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 16 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 30% | Draw 27% | PAU 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Clermont Foot 1.23 / PAU 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | PAU attack 1.123 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: PAU (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.50
PAU xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs PAU kick off?
Clermont Foot vs PAU kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 August 2024 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs PAU?
Clermont Foot 2 - 2 PAU.
Where is Clermont Foot vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs PAU part of?
Clermont Foot vs PAU is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 30% chance of winning, PAU a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Clermont Foot and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and PAU?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Clermont Foot and PAU in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Clermont Foot's attack at 0.85x the league average against PAU's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PAU's attack (1.12x) against Clermont Foot's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
30%
3.33
27%
3.64
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.73
1.50
PAU xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
7%
14.91
12%
8.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.8 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.50 for PAU, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Clermont Foot's recent record stands at 5W 10D 19L from 34 games, a 0.74 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. Clermont Foot haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
PAU, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 11L across 34 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. PAU haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAU by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Clermont Foot heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Clermont Foot have managed 3W 5D 9L from 17 games — 0.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAU's away record stands at 6W 6D 5L across 17 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Clermont Foot are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.62 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PAU in 71%.
Last 34 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Pre-Season
PAU
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and PAU in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 5W 10D 19L in their last 34 games (0.74 PPG), while PAU have gone 11W 12D 11L in their last 34 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or PAU away?
PAU's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 0.82 PPG; PAU away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
PAU go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Clermont Foot
2
Draws
2
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and PAU?
From 4 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 0, PAU have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Clermont Foot 0-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and PAU?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Clermont Foot see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 47%, PAU 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Clermont Foot) and 65% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 47% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play PAU?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Clermont Foot's games and 76% of PAU's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 65% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and PAU tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, PAU in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Clermont Foot and PAU share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot and PAU finished level at 2-2 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.23 xG and PAU 1.50 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against PAU attack 1.12 / defence 1.06, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 30% | Draw 27% | PAU 43%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 50%, PAU 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
PAU's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PAU arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.74. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.