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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Clermont Foot and Montpellier share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Clermont Foot and Montpellier finished level at 1-1 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 0.77 xG and Montpellier 0.86 xG, a combined 1.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.80 / defence 0.95 against Montpellier attack 0.74 / defence 0.79, drawn from 45/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 30% | Draw 35% | Montpellier 35%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 38%, Montpellier 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Clermont Foot's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Montpellier's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.00 PPG, Montpellier 0.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Montpellier (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights