Clermont Foot 0-1 Martigues – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Martigues fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Clermont Foot welcome Martigues to Stade Gabriel-Montpied. Kick-off is set for Friday 25 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Clermont Foot — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stade Gabriel-Montpied this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Martigues have recorded 1W 2D 6L from 9 outings — 0.56 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 2.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.33 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Martigues, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Martigues have posted 1W 1D 2L from 4 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Clermont Foot) versus 0.56 (Martigues). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Martigues in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Clermont Foot 33% | Martigues 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Clermont Foot 33% | Martigues 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 2.07 xG and Martigues 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.931 / defence 1.076 | Martigues attack 0.919 / defence 1.534. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.142. Martigues bring a strong defensive rating of 1.534 — this is suppressing Clermont Foot's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Clermont Foot games / 9 Martigues games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 59% | Draw 21% | Martigues 20%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Martigues 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Clermont Foot (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Clermont Foot are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 60% | Martigues 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Martigues | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 25 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 59% | Draw 21% | Martigues 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 59% | xG Clermont Foot 2.07 / Martigues 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.931 / def 1.076 | Martigues attack 0.919 / def 1.534 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (59%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Martigues xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Martigues kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Martigues kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 25 October 2024 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Martigues?
Clermont Foot 0 - 1 Martigues.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Martigues being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Martigues part of?
Clermont Foot vs Martigues is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Martigues?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 59% chance of winning, Martigues a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Martigues?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Clermont Foot and Martigues will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Martigues have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Martigues?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Clermont Foot and Martigues in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Martigues (all comps): 1W-2D-6L in 9 | 0.56 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Clermont Foot vs Martigues?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (0.93) and Martigues's defence rating (1.53), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Martigues's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
59%
1.69
21%
4.80
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
3.20
1.13
Martigues xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
13%
7.95
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
3%
39.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Martigues?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Martigues expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.13 for Martigues, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Martigues?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Clermont Foot come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 3D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Martigues sit at 0.56 PPG from 9 outings (1W 2D 6L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Martigues is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Clermont Foot carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Martigues — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Clermont Foot's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Martigues have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 0.56 PPG overall record — Martigues travel well.
The Goals Picture
Clermont Foot are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Martigues are on 0.67 scored and 2.33 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Martigues
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Martigues in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 games (1.00 PPG), while Martigues have gone 1W 2D 6L in their last 9 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Martigues away?
Clermont Foot's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.00 PPG; Martigues away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Clermont Foot and Martigues runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Clermont Foot
0
Draws
1
Martigues
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Martigues?
From 2 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 1, Martigues have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Martigues last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2025, when Martigues 0-1 Clermont Foot.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Martigues are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 50%, Martigues 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Clermont Foot) and 75% (Martigues).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 50% of games; Martigues in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Martigues away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Martigues?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 50% of Martigues's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Martigues usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 75% of Martigues's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Martigues tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Martigues in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Martigues defy the odds to beat Clermont Foot 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Martigues beat Clermont Foot 0-1 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 2.07 xG and Martigues 1.13 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Clermont Foot fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.93 / defence 1.08 against Martigues attack 0.92 / defence 1.53, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 59% | Draw 21% | Martigues 20%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Martigues win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 33%, Martigues 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Martigues's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Clermont Foot arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.56. Form was overturned, with Martigues winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Martigues (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.