Clermont Foot vs Laval – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Clermont Foot at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Laval encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Clermont Foot and Laval meet at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Friday 12 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Clermont Foot's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 7D 1L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Clermont Foot at Stade Gabriel Montpied this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Laval have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Laval have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Laval's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Clermont Foot, 1.20 for Laval — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Clermont Foot, 0 for Laval and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2026, ended 4–1 with Clermont Foot winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Clermont Foot goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Laval goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 58% versus Laval 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 42% | Laval 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.11 xG and Laval 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.700 / defence 0.705 | Laval attack 0.922 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.244. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.700 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Laval bring a strong defensive rating of 1.242 — this is suppressing Clermont Foot's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Clermont Foot's defence rating of 0.705 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Clermont Foot games / 41 Laval games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 41% | Draw 33% | Laval 25%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | Laval 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Clermont Foot as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates are neutral: Clermont Foot 40% | Laval 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 12 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 41% | Draw 33% | Laval 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Clermont Foot 1.11 / Laval 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.700 / def 0.705 | Laval attack 0.922 / def 1.242 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Laval xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Laval kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Laval is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 12 February 2027 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Laval part of?
Clermont Foot vs Laval is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 41% chance of winning, Laval a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Clermont Foot and Laval will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Laval?
Record (4 meetings): Clermont Foot 2W | Draws 2 | Laval 0W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Laval in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. Laval (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Clermont Foot's attack at 0.70x the league average against Laval's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Laval's attack (0.92x) against Clermont Foot's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
41%
2.41
33%
3.02
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
1.92
0.81
Laval xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
18%
5.42
8%
11.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 11.9 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 0.81 for Laval, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Laval?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Clermont Foot come into this having played 41 games, going 9W 16D 16L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Laval sit at 0.95 PPG from 41 outings (8W 15D 18L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Laval, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Clermont Foot against 0.95 for Laval. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Clermont Foot's home form reads 5W 9D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Laval have taken 0.95 points per game from 20 outings (4W 7D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 0.88 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Early Season
Laval
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Laval in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 9W 16D 16L in their last 41 games (1.05 PPG), while Laval have gone 8W 15D 18L in their last 41 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Laval away?
Clermont Foot's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.20 PPG; Laval away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Clermont Foot won 4-1 on 3 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Laval — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Clermont Foot
2
Draws
0
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Laval?
From 4 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 2, Laval have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Laval last play each other?
They last met on 3 January 2026, when Clermont Foot 4-1 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Laval?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Clermont Foot see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 60%, Laval 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Clermont Foot and 35% for Laval.
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 35% of games; Laval in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Laval?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 45% of Laval's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Laval usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 35% of Laval's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Laval tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Laval in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.