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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Clermont Foot run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Laval.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Clermont Foot beat Laval 4-1 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.17 xG and Laval 0.95 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Clermont Foot beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.91 / defence 0.96 against Laval attack 0.83 / defence 1.04, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 41% | Draw 30% | Laval 30%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 37%, Laval 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Clermont Foot's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Laval's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.00 PPG, Laval 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Clermont Foot win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm. Laval (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights