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Stalemate at Clermont Foot's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Clermont Foot and Grenoble finished level at 0-0 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.00 xG and Grenoble 1.10 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Clermont Foot fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Grenoble landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.70 / defence 1.08 against Grenoble attack 0.96 / defence 1.09, drawn from 26/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 32% | Draw 30% | Grenoble 38%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 43%, Grenoble 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Clermont Foot's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Grenoble's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Grenoble arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Grenoble (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights