🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Boulogne defy the odds to beat Clermont Foot 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Boulogne beat Clermont Foot 1-2 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Relegation Round, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.22 xG and Boulogne 1.10 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Boulogne outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.72 / defence 1.16 against Boulogne attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 39% | Draw 28% | Boulogne 33%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Boulogne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 100%, Boulogne 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Clermont Foot arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Boulogne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Clermont Foot managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Boulogne scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights