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Poisson rates Annecy at 35% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Annecy encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 33 as Clermont Foot welcome Annecy to Stade Gabriel Montpied. Kick-off is set for Friday 14 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Clermont Foot have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Clermont Foot haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Clermont Foot's home record at Stade Gabriel Montpied: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Annecy haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Annecy have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Clermont Foot) versus 1.60 (Annecy). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Clermont Foot, 3 for Annecy and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2026, ended 1–2 with Annecy winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Table Context

The standings have Annecy (7th, 52 pts) 6 places above Clermont Foot (13th, 37 pts) — a 15-point gap in Ligue 2.

On home turf, Clermont Foot's Ligue 2 record reads 5W 6D 6L this term. Away from home, Annecy have posted 8W 1D 8L in Ligue 2 this season.

In-Play Profile

Clermont Foot in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).

Annecy in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 59% versus Annecy 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 47% | Annecy 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.31 xG and Annecy 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.926 / defence 0.940 | Annecy attack 1.107 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.258. Data: 34 Clermont Foot games / 34 Annecy games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 35% | Draw 29% | Annecy 35%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Annecy 2.86. The draw (29%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 29% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Clermont Foot 60% | Annecy 40%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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