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Shock result as Annecy defy the odds to beat Clermont Foot 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Annecy beat Clermont Foot 0-1 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.22 xG and Annecy 1.13 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Clermont Foot fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.90 / defence 0.93 against Annecy attack 0.95 / defence 1.09, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 38% | Draw 28% | Annecy 34%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Annecy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 40%, Annecy 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Clermont Foot's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Annecy's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Annecy arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights