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Shock result as Clermont Foot defy the odds to beat Amiens 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Clermont Foot beat Amiens 2-1 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.25 xG and Amiens 1.35 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.80 / defence 0.97 against Amiens attack 1.18 / defence 1.20, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 35% | Draw 26% | Amiens 39%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Clermont Foot win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 36%, Amiens 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Clermont Foot's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Amiens's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 0.98 PPG, Amiens 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Clermont Foot win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights