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Clermont Foot and Amiens share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Clermont Foot and Amiens finished level at 1-1 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 0.99 xG and Amiens 0.83 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.63 / defence 1.00 against Amiens attack 0.79 / defence 1.18, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 38% | Draw 32% | Amiens 29%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 43%, Amiens 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Clermont Foot's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Amiens's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Amiens arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights