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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Caen and RED Star FC 93 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Caen and RED Star FC 93 finished level at 1-1 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.17 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.38 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 0.72 / defence 1.31 against RED Star FC 93 attack 0.97 / defence 1.16, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Caen 32% | Draw 26% | RED Star FC 93 42%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 53%, RED Star FC 93 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Caen's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

RED Star FC 93's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, RED Star FC 93 arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.66. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights