Caen 4-2 Nimes – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Caen at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Caen vs Nimes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Caen and Nimes meet at Stade Michel d'Ornano in Ligue 2 (matchday 35). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 May 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Caen (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Caen have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nimes's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Nimes have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Caen. A 0.60 PPG lead over Nimes (1.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Caen, 0 for Nimes and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 30 Jul 2022, ended Caen 1–0 Nimes — a Caen win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Caen — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Nimes — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 54% versus Nimes 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Caen 44% | Nimes 51%). Note also that Nimes surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Caen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.92 xG and Nimes 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 1.158 / defence 0.942 | Nimes attack 0.783 / defence 1.293. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.110. Nimes's defence rating of 1.293 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Caen's projected output up. Nimes's attack rating of 0.783 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Data: built from Caen's last 72 games and Nimes's last 72.
Result probabilities: Caen 63% | Draw 22% | Nimes 15%. Fair-value odds: Caen 1.58 | Draw 4.59 | Nimes 6.64. The model has a clear lean to Caen (63%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Caen as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Caen 70% (last 10 home games) | Nimes 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Nimes | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 35 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 63% | Draw 22% | Nimes 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Caen 1.92 / Nimes 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 1.158 / def 0.942 | Nimes attack 0.783 / def 1.293 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Caen (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Caen xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Nimes xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Caen vs Nimes FAQs
What time does Caen vs Nimes kick off?
Caen vs Nimes kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Nimes?
Caen 4 - 2 Nimes.
Where is Caen vs Nimes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Nimes part of?
Caen vs Nimes is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 35) (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Nimes?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 63% chance of winning, Nimes a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Nimes?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Caen and Nimes will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Caen vs Nimes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Caen's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Nimes's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. Flip it around — Nimes's attack (0.78x) against Caen's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from Caen's last 72 games and Nimes's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
63%
1.58
22%
4.59
15%
6.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Caen xG
Total xG
2.74
0.82
Nimes xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
6.64
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
15%
6.84
Win to Nil
28%
3.59
2%
45.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 10.1 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Caen vs Nimes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Nimes?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Caen and Nimes expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Caen and 0.82 for Nimes, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Nimes?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, Caen have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 27W 21D 24L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Nimes's form line: 23W 13D 36L from 72 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Caen against 1.14 for Nimes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Caen have posted 1.81 PPG from their last 36 home games (19W 8D 9L).
On the road, Nimes have gone 9W 7D 20L from their last 36 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Caen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Caen are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Nimes are on 1.14 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Current Season
Nimes
Current Season
Caen (Home) vs Nimes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Caen
Current Season
Nimes
Current Season
❓ Caen vs Nimes Form FAQs
What form are Caen and Nimes in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 27W 21D 24L in their last 72 games (1.42 PPG), while Nimes have gone 23W 13D 36L in their last 72 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Nimes away?
Caen's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.81 PPG; Nimes away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Caen and Nimes, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 13 May 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Caen have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Caen won Caen 4-0 Nimes on 12 Feb 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Caen have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Nimes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Caen
1
Draws
0
Nimes
Recent Meetings
❓ Caen vs Nimes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Nimes?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Caen have won 3, Nimes have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Caen and Nimes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 May 2023: Caen 4-2 Nimes.
Who has won more matches between Caen and Nimes?
Caen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 53%, Nimes 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Caen) and 53% (Nimes).
On the defensive side: Caen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Nimes in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Nimes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Caen vs Nimes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Caen and Nimes matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Caen's recent matches and 50% of Nimes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Caen and Nimes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Caen's recent games and 53% of Nimes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Nimes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Caen's recent matches and 69% of Nimes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Caen cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Nimes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Caen beat Nimes 4-2 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 35, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.92 xG and Nimes 0.82 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Caen beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nimes outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 1.16 / defence 0.94 against Nimes attack 0.78 / defence 1.29, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 63% | Draw 22% | Nimes 15%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 44%, Nimes 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Nimes's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Caen 1.42 PPG, Nimes 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Caen win broke the near-deadlock. Caen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nimes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Ligue 2 fixtures — matchday 35
All Ligue 2 fixtures →
More French football predictions →