Caen 0-1 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Caen at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Caen vs Estac Troyes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Michel d'Ornano plays host to Caen versus Estac Troyes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Caen have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Caen have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stade Michel d'Ornano — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Caen are significantly better at Stade Michel d'Ornano than their overall form suggests.
Estac Troyes's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Caen's favour (1.10 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Caen 0W, Estac Troyes 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Caen — key trading statistics (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Estac Troyes — key trading statistics (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 51% versus Estac Troyes 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Caen 51% | Estac Troyes 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.31 xG and Estac Troyes 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 0.869 / defence 0.943 | Estac Troyes attack 0.747 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.137. Data: 47 Caen games / 47 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Caen 48% | Draw 29% | Estac Troyes 23%. Fair-value odds: Caen 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Estac Troyes 4.35. Caen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Caen at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Caen if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Caen 40% | Estac Troyes 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 48% | Draw 29% | Estac Troyes 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Caen 1.31 / Estac Troyes 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 0.869 / def 0.943 | Estac Troyes attack 0.747 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Caen (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Caen xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Estac Troyes xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Caen vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Estac Troyes?
Caen 0 - 1 Estac Troyes.
Where is Caen vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Estac Troyes part of?
Caen vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 48% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Caen and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Estac Troyes?
Record (2 meetings): Caen 0W | Draws 1 | Estac Troyes 1W.
What form are Caen and Estac Troyes in?
Caen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Estac Troyes (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Caen vs Estac Troyes?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Caen's attack rating (0.87) and Estac Troyes's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Estac Troyes's attack (0.75x) against Caen's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
48%
2.06
29%
3.50
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Caen xG
Total xG
2.11
0.80
Estac Troyes xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
6%
16.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.7 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Caen and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Caen and 0.80 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Caen's recent record stands at 19W 9D 19L from 47 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estac Troyes, meanwhile, have gone 10W 16D 21L across 47 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Caen by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estac Troyes heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Caen have managed 13W 4D 7L from 24 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Estac Troyes's away record stands at 2W 11D 11L across 24 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Caen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Caen are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.00 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Caen and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 19W 9D 19L in their last 47 games (1.40 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 10W 16D 21L in their last 47 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Estac Troyes away?
Caen's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.79 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Caen or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Caen have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Estac Troyes go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Estac Troyes won 3-0 on 1 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Caen have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Caen
1
Draws
3
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Estac Troyes?
From 4 meetings on record, Caen have won 0, Estac Troyes have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Estac Troyes 3-0 Caen.
Who has won more matches between Caen and Estac Troyes?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Caen see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Estac Troyes see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 33%, Estac Troyes 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Caen) and 42% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Caen keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Estac Troyes in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Caen play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Caen's recent matches and 46% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Caen vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Caen's recent games and 42% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Estac Troyes defy the odds to beat Caen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Caen 0-1 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.31 xG and Estac Troyes 0.80 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Caen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 0.87 / defence 0.94 against Estac Troyes attack 0.75 / defence 1.05, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 48% | Draw 29% | Estac Troyes 23%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Estac Troyes win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 51%, Estac Troyes 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Caen arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Estac Troyes winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.