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Prediction vindicated as RED Star FC 93 edge out Boulogne 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RED Star FC 93 beat Boulogne 1-2 at Stade de la Libération, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Boulogne 0.59 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.99 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boulogne attack 0.65 / defence 1.24 against RED Star FC 93 attack 1.28 / defence 0.71, drawn from 7/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Boulogne 10% | Draw 19% | RED Star FC 93 70%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 70%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boulogne 56%, RED Star FC 93 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Boulogne's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

RED Star FC 93's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, RED Star FC 93 arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights