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Stalemate at Boulogne's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Boulogne and Nancy finished level at 0-0 at Stade de la Libération, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Boulogne 1.48 xG and Nancy 1.35 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Boulogne fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Nancy landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boulogne attack 1.08 / defence 1.43 against Nancy attack 0.80 / defence 1.22, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Boulogne 40% | Draw 26% | Nancy 34%, with Boulogne to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boulogne 48%, Nancy 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Boulogne's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Nancy's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Boulogne 1.22 PPG, Nancy 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Boulogne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line. Nancy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights