Boulogne vs Laval – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Boulogne at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Boulogne vs Laval encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Laval make the trip to to face Boulogne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Friday 5 March 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Boulogne have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boulogne at this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Laval (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Laval's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Boulogne. A 0.60 PPG lead over Laval (1.20 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Across the last 3 meetings, Laval have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Boulogne's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2026, ended 0–1 with Laval winning.
It is worth noting that Laval have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Boulogne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Laval goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boulogne 48% versus Laval 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boulogne 39% | Laval 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 1.67 xG and Laval 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 1.008 / defence 0.831 | Laval attack 0.832 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.319. Laval bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Boulogne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Boulogne games / 46 Laval games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boulogne 55% | Draw 24% | Laval 20%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Laval 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Boulogne (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Laval lead the H2H ledger, but Boulogne carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Boulogne at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Boulogne 60% | Laval 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boulogne vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: • Kick-off: Friday 5 Mar 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boulogne 55% | Draw 24% | Laval 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Boulogne 1.67 / Laval 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Boulogne attack 1.008 / def 0.831 | Laval attack 0.832 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Boulogne (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Boulogne xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Laval xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boulogne vs Laval kick off?
Boulogne vs Laval is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 5 March 2027.
What competition is Boulogne vs Laval part of?
Boulogne vs Laval is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Boulogne vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Boulogne a 55% chance of winning, Laval a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Boulogne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boulogne vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Boulogne and Laval will score (BTTS).
Will Boulogne vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Laval?
Record (3 meetings): Boulogne 0W | Draws 0 | Laval 3W.
What form are Boulogne and Laval in?
Boulogne (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Laval (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Boulogne's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Laval's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — Laval's attack (0.83x) against Boulogne's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boulogne Win
55%
1.81
24%
4.12
20%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Boulogne xG
Total xG
2.58
0.91
Laval xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
4.88
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
4%
25.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.5 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boulogne vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Boulogne and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Boulogne and 0.91 for Laval, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Boulogne vs Laval?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Boulogne come into this having played 46 games, going 11W 16D 19L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-W. The sample for Boulogne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Laval sit at 0.93 PPG from 46 outings (9W 16D 21L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Boulogne against 0.93 for Laval. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Boulogne's home form reads 5W 7D 11L across 23 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Laval have taken 0.83 points per game from 23 outings (4W 7D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Boulogne are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 0.91 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boulogne
Blended
Laval
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boulogne and Laval in coming into this match?
Boulogne have gone 11W 16D 19L in their last 46 games (1.07 PPG), while Laval have gone 9W 16D 21L in their last 46 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boulogne at home or Laval away?
Boulogne's home record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boulogne at home: 0.96 PPG; Laval away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Boulogne or Laval been keeping clean sheets recently?
Boulogne have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Laval in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 30 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Laval have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Boulogne
0
Draws
3
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Laval?
From 3 meetings on record, Boulogne have won 0, Laval have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Boulogne and Laval last play each other?
They last met on 30 October 2026, when Laval 1-0 Boulogne.
Who has won more matches between Boulogne and Laval?
Laval have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Boulogne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boulogne 61%, Laval 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Boulogne) and 35% (Laval).
On the defensive side: Boulogne have failed to score in 26% of games; Laval in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boulogne home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boulogne play Laval?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Boulogne's recent matches and 44% of Laval's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Boulogne vs Laval usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Boulogne's recent games and 35% of Laval's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Boulogne and Laval tend to score early?
Boulogne have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Laval in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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