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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Laval edge out Boulogne 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Laval beat Boulogne 1-2 at Stade de la Libération, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Boulogne 0.87 xG and Laval 1.17 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Laval outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boulogne attack 0.69 / defence 1.10 against Laval attack 0.96 / defence 0.96, drawn from 3/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Boulogne 27% | Draw 30% | Laval 43%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boulogne 40%, Laval 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Boulogne's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Laval's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Boulogne 0.60 PPG, Laval 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Laval win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights