Boulogne 2-2 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Guingamp at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Boulogne vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Boulogne welcome Guingamp to Stade de la Libération. Kick-off is set for Friday 17 October 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Boulogne — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Boulogne have posted 1W 0D 5L at Stade de la Libération — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade de la Libération this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Boulogne at 1.20 PPG versus Guingamp's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Boulogne in-play and half-time data (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 64%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boulogne 46% versus Guingamp 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boulogne 54% | Guingamp 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 1.14 xG and Guingamp 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 0.723 / defence 1.234 | Guingamp attack 1.255 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.281. Boulogne's attack strength of 0.723 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Guingamp bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Boulogne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Guingamp have an above-average attack strength of 1.255 — the away xG of 1.98 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 9 Boulogne games / 43 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boulogne 21% | Draw 22% | Guingamp 57%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 4.76 | Draw 4.55 | Guingamp 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Guingamp (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Boulogne 50% | Guingamp 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boulogne vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade de la Libération • Kick-off: Friday 17 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boulogne 21% | Draw 22% | Guingamp 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG Boulogne 1.14 / Guingamp 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: Boulogne attack 0.723 / def 1.234 | Guingamp attack 1.255 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Boulogne xG
Expected Goals
1.98
Guingamp xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boulogne vs Guingamp kick off?
Boulogne vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 October 2025 at Stade de la Libération.
What was the final score in Boulogne vs Guingamp?
Boulogne 2 - 2 Guingamp.
Where is Boulogne vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Libération.
What competition is Boulogne vs Guingamp part of?
Boulogne vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Boulogne vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Boulogne a 21% chance of winning, Guingamp a 57% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boulogne vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Boulogne and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Boulogne vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Guingamp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Boulogne and Guingamp in?
Boulogne (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Guingamp (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Boulogne's attack rating (0.72) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Boulogne's defence, projects 1.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
21%
4.67
22%
4.63
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Boulogne xG
Total xG
3.12
1.98
Guingamp xG
4.67
21%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
14%
7.27
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
3%
33.96
18%
5.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boulogne vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Boulogne and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Boulogne and 1.98 for Guingamp, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Boulogne vs Guingamp?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 11 outings, Boulogne have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 4W 0D 7L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Boulogne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp's form line: 5W 2D 4L from 11 games, 1.55 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Guingamp are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Boulogne.
Venue Form
On home soil, Boulogne have posted 0.50 PPG from 6 outings (1W 0D 5L). That actually lags their 1.09 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Guingamp have gone 3W 0D 3L from 6 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Boulogne are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.73 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp in 64%.
Last 11 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boulogne
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boulogne and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Boulogne have gone 4W 0D 7L in their last 11 games (1.09 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 5W 2D 4L in their last 11 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boulogne at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boulogne at home: 0.50 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Guingamp have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Jan 2026, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Boulogne
1
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Guingamp?
From 3 meetings on record, Boulogne have won 0, Guingamp have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Boulogne and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Guingamp 1-0 Boulogne.
Who has won more matches between Boulogne and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Boulogne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boulogne 50%, Guingamp 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Boulogne and 67% for Guingamp. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Boulogne have failed to score in 33% of games; Guingamp in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boulogne home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boulogne play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Boulogne's games and 67% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Boulogne vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Boulogne's matches and 67% of Guingamp's.
Do Boulogne and Guingamp tend to score early?
Boulogne have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Boulogne and Guingamp share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Boulogne and Guingamp finished level at 2-2 at Stade de la Libération, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boulogne 1.14 xG and Guingamp 1.98 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Boulogne beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boulogne attack 0.72 / defence 1.23 against Guingamp attack 1.25 / defence 1.26, drawn from 9/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boulogne 21% | Draw 22% | Guingamp 57%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boulogne 54%, Guingamp 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boulogne's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Guingamp's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Boulogne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.