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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Boulogne cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Grenoble.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Boulogne beat Grenoble 3-1 at Stade de la Libération, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Boulogne 1.21 xG and Grenoble 2.19 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Boulogne beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Grenoble landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boulogne attack 0.83 / defence 1.61 against Grenoble attack 1.12 / defence 1.12, drawn from 14/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Boulogne 20% | Draw 20% | Grenoble 60%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Boulogne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boulogne 50%, Grenoble 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Boulogne's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Grenoble's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Boulogne 0.94 PPG, Grenoble 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Boulogne win broke the near-deadlock. Boulogne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line. Grenoble (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights